Operational context
Situation
Following the previous operations, the insurgency is believed to be increasingly desperate after the crippling losses suffered during its assault on the UN aid sites. Intelligence indicates that surviving cells intend to retaliate by launching terror attacks against the civilian population in and around Virojoki.
The precise targets, timings and methods are unknown. Threats may include armed attackers, concealed explosives, vehicle-borne devices and insurgents operating in civilian clothing or vehicles. Public areas, humanitarian facilities and locations with large civilian concentrations are considered the most likely targets. Virojoki remains heavily populated and normal civilian movement is expected throughout the area.
Regional tensions are at an all-time high, rivalled only by the period preceding the Fall of Europe. Intelligence analysts have identified several variables bearing an alarming similarity to the conditions observed immediately before Russia began its invasion of Europe.
Russian forces remain active beyond the border and military activity throughout the region continues to increase. ORION personnel are to avoid unnecessary escalation while remaining prepared for anything.